Polymarket dry run · started 2026-09-11
None — scans run every 10 minutes
| Market | Side | My est. | Market | Decision | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | NO | 0.05-0.12 | 16.4% | REJECTED | 2026-09-11 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? (ADD-ON, second $1 | YES | 34.1% | REJECTED | 2026-09-11 | |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | YES | 0.94-0.97 | 97.3% | REJECTED | 2026-09-11 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | YES | 0.25-0.35 (core ~0.30) | 20.5% | REJECTED | 2026-09-11 |
| Will Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | NO | 0.38-0.43 headline; own decomposition says 0.50-0.55 | 56.5% | REJECTED | 2026-09-11 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | YES | ~0.35 | 25.0% | REJECTED | 2026-09-11 |