Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $1,641); picked by code for a first check.

Estimate 0.940 is 1.5 points from the market YES price 0.955, under the 5-point council threshold.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

94% chance YES

Would have paid

6¢ per NO share

Market

96% chance YES

Date

today

• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 13: market yes 0.955, ask 0.968

• www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/9/iran-stands-by-demands-to-e
  Overnight US strikes hit the southern Iranian island of Qeshm on Nov 9, 2026, confirmed by Hormozgan deputy governor Ahmad Nafisi; Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Nov 8 that Israel's military mission in Iran remains unfinished, but no Israeli strike was reported.
• www.iranintl.com/en/202611098032
  US airstrikes over the past week targeted Iran's radar, missile-launcher and mine-laying systems near Qeshm island and Jask, continuing a US-run naval blockade; the Jerusalem Post reported Trump gave VP Vance 'a few days' to negotiate and ultimately ordered no new strike over the weekend of Nov 7-8.

No council record