Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $1,909); picked by code for a first check.

Estimate 0.080 is 2.5 points from the market YES price 0.105, under the 5-point council threshold.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

8% chance YES

Would have paid

90¢ per NO share

Market

11% chance YES

Date

today

• John Ratcliffe leaves Trump administration before 2027: yes 0.105, ask 0.11

• www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/john-ratcliffe-out
  John Ratcliffe held the CIA Director role without interruption through the July 31, 2026 deadline, resolving an identical structured market NO, with no resignation, firing, or reassignment occurring in that window.
• electionlawblog.org/2026/the-real-threat-of-election-interfe
  As of the article's 2026 reporting, Ratcliffe is actively functioning as CIA Director, described as responsive to oversight committees ahead of upcoming elections, with no indication of departure.

No council record