Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 18?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $1,297); picked by code for a first check.

Estimate 0.900 is 1.5 points from the market YES price 0.915, under the 5-point council threshold.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

90% chance YES

Would have paid

11¢ per NO share

Market

92% chance YES

Date

today

• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 18: market yes 0.915, ask 0.94

• www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trum
  On Nov 9, 2026, after meeting Qatar's PM, Trump said the US is 'ready to go anytime we want' with strikes on Iran, while Iran said peace is impossible unless the US lifts its naval blockade, frees seized assets and lifts sanctions.
• abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-ame
  Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said Nov 9, 2026 that Iran's 'two-day plan' is the only proposal on the table and warned any renewed US attacks would have 'dire consequences,' with talks still mediated by Qatar and Pakistan.

No council record