US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 15, 2026?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $3,853); picked by code for a first check.

Council round2: 0/3 approve (ruleset v4). Objections: [openai/gpt-6.1-sol] REJECT (confidence 9): Objection 1 is not resolved: subdividing one ongoing blockade into event-free windows does not establish a reliable reference-class probability, and the upward adjustment to 20% remains uncalculated and uncalibrated. Objection 2 is only partially addressed: the rebuttal supplies attributed quotations for Qatar progress and the Vance–Rezaei letter, but I cannot independently authenticate those reports here. It neither substantiates nor explicitly withdraws the separate claim that Iran rejected a phased agreement, leaving that objection unresolved. [anthropic/claude-opus-5.5] REJECT (confidence 6): The rebuttal's base-rate answer is wrong on its own terms. The payload called ~15–20% the base rate and said Trump's statement lowered it, but the rebuttal now says the base rate is ~0% and raised to 20%. That reverses the stated derivation, rests on a thin 0-of-3.4-windows sample, and ignores that the rules say the blockade was "reinstated" on July 13, so a prior end to a US blockade of Iran already happened. On objection 2, the new Qatar "good progress" and Vance–Rezaei letter excerpts are dated and attributable, which resolves that part. However, the thesis's "has not agreed to any phased deal" claim and Trump being "satisfied" are still unquoted, and the rebuttal's own mention of an "Islamabad understanding" cuts against the first claim. [moonshotai/kimi-k3.1-pro] REJECT (confidence 7): The dated quotations make the Qatar meetings and Vance–Razaei letter checkable, but the rebuttal neither substantiates nor withdraws the separate claim that Iran rejected a phased agreement. Its base-rate answer also does not support 15–20%: 0/3.4 windows supplies no positive empirical frequency, and the adjustment to 20% remains an unquantified judgment based on diplomacy whose connection to a qualifying blockade-end announcement is uncertain. The objection to the numerical foundation the

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

20% chance YES

Would have paid

70¢ per NO share

Market

33% chance YES

Date

today

Trump's own public statement that allies prefer continuing the blockade and that he is satisfied with the status quo is a direct, recent signal that a near-term unilateral US end-announcement is less likely than market pricing suggests.

• US announces end of Iranian blockade by Dec 15, 2026: Polymarket yes=0.325, ask=0.35, liquidity $19,033, ends 2026-12-16

• www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202611077068
  On Nov 9, 2026, Trump said in a Truth Social post that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait 'would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the Greatest Naval Blockade in History, and the new Operation Iron Gate.'
• news.az/news/iran-sets-conditions-for-peace-calls-on-us-to-l
  On Nov 9, 2026, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said progress toward peace is impossible unless the US lifts its naval blockade, halts attacks, returns Iran's assets, and removes sanctions.
• www.dawn.com/news/2041604
  On Nov 2, 2026, Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi said Iran expects Washington to lift new sanctions, scale back military presence, end the blockade and implement planned oil-sanction waivers before Hormuz can reopen.