Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $5); picked by code for a first check.

Estimate 0.045 is 2.0 points from the market YES price 0.065, under the 5-point council threshold.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

5% chance YES

Would have paid

94¢ per NO share

Market

7% chance YES

Date

today

• Scavino tenure start: Jan 20, 2025 as deputy chief of staff; Oct 12, 2025 added Presidential Personnel Office directorship

• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Scavino
  Scavino has served continuously as deputy chief of staff since Jan 20, 2025 and was additionally appointed director of the Presidential Personnel Office on Oct 12, 2025, after Sergio Gor departed for an ambassadorship
• meridian.news/p/699466525757863050/
  In the Nov 2026 Oval Office incident where Trump berated Susie Wiles leading to her resignation, Scavino was reportedly present as a bystander and was not implicated or removed

No council record