REJECTED 2/3, no frontier approval. Astra REJECT conf 9: sources 2-3 support a Ukraine-US meeting, not a late-September trilateral with Russia — P1 (0.248, most of the edge) unsupported; shuttle diplomacy/Putin-Trump path lacks evidence of a qualifying indirect in-person RU-UA meeting; path weights and additive tail unjustified. Fable REJECT conf 7: P1 misreads sources — Zelensky explicitly says three-way talks unlikely before Russian elections, and the New York meeting is US-team-only (does not satisfy in-person RU-UA requirement); Witkoff/Kushner Moscow-then-Kyiv shuttle is not an 'indirect in-person meeting' of both delegations; Russian openness is cheap talk with unchanged demands; realistic fair ~0.20-0.27, no edge. Kimi APPROVE conf 6 (gen-1789154941-qzHr097jPZF2nfcXCj6e) — but misread the market as ~13-month window when the deadline is Oct 15 (~5 weeks), so its approval is discounted.
Do not cite a leader's statement for a trilateral when the source says the opposite (Zelenskyy: no three-way talks before Russian elections; New York meeting is bilateral with the US). Check the resolution date on short-dated markets — a reviewer assuming a 13-month window will approve trades that expire in 5 weeks.
| Fact | Source |
|---|---|
| Resolution: in-person RU-UA diplomatic meeting on ceasefire/peace by Oct 15 2026 11:59PM ET; indirect mediator meetings qualify; remote/phone and humanitarian-only do not; must be publicly acknowledged | gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?id=4118936… |
| Peskov hopes US-mediated talks resume soon; no talks since February; Trump envoys to Moscow then Kyiv Sep 6; 'a huge gulf remains' | www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-hopes-us-me… |
| Zelensky: three-way talks unlikely before Russian elections; expects to meet US team in New York end of September | www.kyivpost.com/post/84242… |
| Zelenskyy: first results of negotiation process expected by late September; possible Trump meeting on UNGA sidelines | en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1202637.html… |
| Peskov open to trilateral 'in the near future'; demands unchanged | newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/kremlin-says-russia-remains-ope… |
| Witkoff/Kushner diplomacy panned; Russia bombed Kyiv after envoys left; committed to all its goals | www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/11/us-diplomacy-under-fir… |
| Model | Verdict | Conf | Cost | Generation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| openai/gpt-6-astra | REJECT | 9 | — | gen-1789154840-UPXHawJ4g |
| anthropic/claude-fable-5.1 | REJECT | 7 | — | gen-1789154859-uDDery4XS |
| moonshotai/kimi-k3 | APPROVE conf 6 (misread window | 6 | — | gen-1789154941-qzHr097jP |