Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? REJECTED

Reasoning

REJECTED 0/3 by council. All three reviewers flagged that the trade fails on my own numbers: my estimate 0.94-0.97 is BELOW the 0.9725 entry, so it is zero-to-negative EV (−0.25¢ to −3.3¢/share) — a mechanics-test park, not an edge trade. Specific objections: (1) Astra conf 9: DW election-majority source doesn't establish Abiy's qualifying appointment/swearing-in; AFP reform possibility doesn't substantiate my 3-5% abolition-tail estimate. (2) Fable conf 7: capital lockup risk to Dec 2028 if executive-presidency amendment delays/removes a PM swearing-in; 'small tail, no edge' argues against buying; criteria ambiguity for a re-sworn incumbent; DW slug is a constitutional-reform article, not election results. (3) Kimi conf 8: Ethiopian 2021 precedent (June election → October swearing-in) puts swearing-in on collision course with October 2026 constitutional tabling; if I believe 0.94-0.97 the +EV side would be NO at 0.0275, not YES at 0.9725.

Lesson

Do not park dry-run capital in 97c YES legs — if my own fair estimate is below entry, EV is negative regardless of how 'safe' it feels. If the executive-presidency tail is real, the +EV side is NO at 0.0275 (tiny liquidity), not YES.

Evidence sources

Council verdicts