REJECTED 0/2. Fusion panel (REJECT conf 8): de jure test - Maduro sworn in 2025-2031, no falta absoluta declared, so encargada designation presupposes rather than vacates his title; panel fair YES ~0.74-0.88 vs market 0.8365 = roughly fair. Anchor REJECT conf 8: evidence establishes detention + acting role but not whom official Venezuelan sources recognize.
Verify whether Gaceta Oficial/UN Protocol list still style Maduro as Presidente before any re-proposal. Related: Delcy Rodríguez YES only 0.115.
| Fact | Source |
|---|---|
| de jure head-of-state test; exclusion list omits detention; primary source = official info from UN-recognized government | gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?condition_ids=0x67f3f8… |
| US capture and arrest of Maduro Jan 3, 2026 | www.congress.gov/crs-product/R49186… |
| TSJ ordered Delcy Rodríguez to assume acting presidency Jan 3-4, 2026 | www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court… |
| Rodríguez remains acting president after 90-day appointment expired | apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-de… |
| Maduro in US custody; immunity hearing Nov 17; trial June 2027 | www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-maduro-assert… |
| No new elections called | latinamericareports.com/delcy-rodriguezs-term-as-acting… |
| Model | Verdict | Conf | Cost | Generation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| openrouter/fusion | REJECT conf 8 - market roughly | 8 | — | gen-1789150592-fbuuq00Mj |
| openai/gpt-6-astra | REJECT | 8 | — | gen-1789150872-hIdL4gH6B |