Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? (ADD-ON, second $10) REJECTED

Side
YES
My estimate
Proposed price
34.1%
Market price
Date
2026-09-11

Reasoning

Anchor (gpt-6-astra) REJECT conf 8: decisive eligibility/candidacy assumption unverified; correlated polls don't establish robust edge over 34.1%; doubling exposure to same unresolved legal risk. Fusion panel: conditional fair 46-53% but panel-weighted fair only 0.35-0.40; runoff vs Philippe discount to ~coin-flip; resolution requires Le Pen personally (Bardella substitution resolves NO). Edge plausibly 1-4pts.

Evidence sources

No sources recorded

Council verdicts

ModelVerdictConfCostGeneration
openrouter/fusiondirectionally right, edge over gen-1789149661-UDbZPFpk6
openai/gpt-6-astraREJECT8 gen-1789149849-dswHy44oM